Actual Demand is Outpacing Initial Projections, Reaching 65% in 2025 Q2

In 2024, Caliber published a white paper analyzing the trending demand for post-repair ADAS calibration and making projections for the near future. In this publication, we conservatively projected that around 60% of collision repairs in 2025 would have needed ADAS calibrations, increasing to around 65% in 2026 and approximately 75% in 2027.

New Data for 2024 Q4, 2025 Q1 & Q2

Current data shows that actual calibration demand is exceeding our 2024 projections. As of 2024 Q4, 53% of collision repairs required ADAS calibrations. By 2025 Q2, that number increased to 65%.

A Changing Market Has Accelerated ADAS Adoption in Registered Vehicles

The Caliber estimatics team based their projections on cross-referencing Caliber data surrounding trending average model year of repairable vehicles with the market penetration of one or more ADAS technologies by vehicle model year.

Market penetration data was provided through the Partnership for Analytics Research in Traffic Safety (PARTS) initiative, a study provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The NHTSA is part of the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Our ADAS calibration partner, Protech Automotive Solutions, then provided validation data based on actual repairs analyzed nationally with the Protech ADAS ID3 tool.

Caliber’s estimatics team tracked trending average model year of repair from 2021 Q1 through 2024 Q2 and found that, during that time, the average model year of repair was changing approximately every 15 months, rather than the expected 12 months. This was likely due to a combination of the escalating average age of light vehicles in operation and suppressed buyer demand for new vehicles as a lingering effect of the COVID 19 pandemic.

After the pandemic, lingering supply chain issues and buyer trepidation meant that new vehicle sales didn’t consistently recover to near pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2024. 

(Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED®), retail and fleet light vehicle sales)

This partial rebound plays a large part in accelerating the average model year of repair, the overall adoption of ADAS technology in registered vehicles, and the percentage of collision repairs with necessary ADAS calibrations.  

Vehicle Mix will Impact a Shop’s Demand

Because adoption of ADAS technology has varied widely between manufacturers, an individual shop’s mix of vehicle makes will create variations in the calibration demand they can expect to see in any repair year. Collision repairers who specialize in select luxury makes may see 90% or more of their claims requiring calibration as early as 2025. Conversely, shops that primarily repair vehicles from industry-giant Ford may encounter relatively few mandated calibrations until 2026-2027.

In 2025, 2018 and 2019 are the average model years of repairable vehicles we are seeing. The NHTSA has data regarding AEB adoption by OEM in 2018, see the chart below.

Continual Monitoring

Caliber, in partnership with Protech Automotive Solutions and leveraging the Protech ADAS ID3 tool, will continue to track actual demand for post-repair ADAS calibrations. Sign up for Caliber Insights to receive future notifications.